The age of the oil will never end, at least not for the lacking of raw material. The experts all over the world are focusing their attention on the question “what will we do when the oil will finish?” but otherwise that’s not the real point. Live without fossil fuel is possible and the need of them is destined to slow down much earlier than the ending of it.
Is a world without oil realistic?
To decree the necessity to find an alternative is surely the climate emergency. The problems connected to the climate led started the research of new “clearest” energy sources. All the sector are interested in it, even who uses the petrol to realize objects.
Nowadays it’s hard to imagine, the request of oil is always increasing, there were never a moment of stasis since the black gold was discovered. In this historical period we use more than hundred million of drums per day. An incredible amount, especially if we think about the climate problems and all the tension that it creates.
Predict though when the growth line will finally make a turndown and will go otherside is extremely hard for the researchers. There is infact who says that it will happen in the 2030, like Bp, who instead is more hopeful an believes that the turnaround will occur already in the 2024 like Goldman Sachs.
Others like the Wood Mackenzie divides in two different moments the reduction of the question: in the 2030 for the transports, and six years later for the other industries. The most pessimistic, like Energy Agency, claims instead that the question will increase up to 125 drums per day until the 2050.
The main problem are the devoloping countries, because when the Europe tries to find alternatives, and it was able to reduce of the 4% its consumptions from the 2011 to the 2016, the rest of the World increased them of 16. If the decrease of the request of oil is already occuring in countries like Japan, Germany, Italy and France, in China we are already so far from it.
Alongside is increasing even the consuption of electricity, the estimation is that the growth of the request will double. The electrification of the energy system, though, means even a replacement of the fossil oil with renewable sources. This is possible thanks to the break down of the prices of the solar, but even to the batteries and to the windy: in ten years the prices decrease between the 60 to the 80%.
Many claims that a world without petrol, supplied 100% with renewable sources, is possible.
A group of researchers infact realized personalised action plans for every country. They contain correct acts to pass to renewable sources of energy from now to the 2050. The most interesting aspect is that the advantages won’t be only environmentally, but it seems that with the passage to renewable sources we will create more job places beside to have a healthier environment for the citizens and so a consequent break down of the costs in the healthcare system.
The 26 researchers of the universities of Stanford, Berkeley, Berlin and Aarhus (coordinated by Mark Jacobson of the Stanford School of Earth), propose to make possible that everything is supplied with the electricity. This to use the energy produced by the wind, the sun and the water, in the amount needed for the whole world.
The aspect to study are a higher efficiency of the production of the renewable sources that will reduce the final consuption of the 40% and even the zeroing of the consuption of extraction, transport and transformation of the petrol.
The research is called “100% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight All-Sector Energy Roadmaps for 139 Countries of the World”. Which is considered utopian, firstly in the USA, it obtained thought the agreement of important person of the scientifical world, because the amount of calculation made demonstrate that the basic idea is reliable.
This post is also available in: Italiano